A commentary on the CAPA Airline Leaders Summit panel discussion in Athens, May 2025

The term “overtourism” has become ubiquitous in travel industry discourse, splashed across headlines and wielded in policy debates from Venice to Barcelona. Yet as industry leaders gathered at the CAPA Airline Leaders Summit in Athens this past May, a more nuanced picture emerged of what this phenomenon actually represents and how the aviation sector is responding to its challenges.

Moderated by Ged Brown, CEO of Low Season Traveller and Tourism Seasonality Summit, the panel brought together three distinct perspectives on one of tourism’s most pressing issues: Peter Glade, CCO of TUI Airline, representing the established European leisure carrier viewpoint; Majid Khan, CEO of Saudi Air Connectivity Programme, offering insights from a rapidly developing destination; and Sascha Feuerherd, Senior Associate Partner at Aviado Partners, providing strategic consulting expertise on airline network management.

What unfolded was a frank discussion that challenged conventional wisdom about overtourism, revealed innovative approaches to destination development, and highlighted the complex interplay between airline business models and sustainable tourism goals. The conversation moved beyond simplistic narratives of tourism as either wholly beneficial or inherently destructive, instead exploring how strategic collaboration between airlines, destinations, and local communities might chart a more sustainable path forward.

The timing of this discussion could not be more relevant. As Brown noted in his opening remarks, 2024 saw 1.4 billion international tourist arrivals worldwide, matching the pre-pandemic peak of 2019. More sobering still are industry predictions suggesting this figure could double within the next two decades. “It took us 100 years to gradually and slowly build up from zero to 1.4 billion international arrivals,” Brown observed. “And we’re looking at potentially doubling that in 20 years. It’s a really big problem.”

Redefining the Problem: The Misnomer of Overtourism

Brown’s opening salvo challenged the very foundation of how the industry discusses tourism pressure. “Overtourism is a misnomer,” he declared, arguing that the term itself obscures the real issues at hand. “Overtourism is a mismanagement of tourism.” This semantic distinction proved crucial to understanding the panel’s subsequent discussions.

The moderator’s critique went deeper than mere wordplay. He highlighted a fundamental gap in destination planning: the absence of capacity studies. “I’ve spoken to CEOs and ministers of tourism around the world. I’ll ask the question, what’s the capacity of your destination? I’ve never had a single answer,” Brown revealed. “They haven’t, in many cases, done the capacity studies. They have no idea what the capacity is.”

This revelation exposes a critical flaw in how destinations approach tourism development. Without understanding carrying capacity, how can any destination determine whether it’s experiencing “over” tourism or simply poorly managed tourism? The distinction matters enormously for policy responses and industry strategy.

The term “overtourism” itself, Brown noted, was first coined by Skift, a travel industry media organisation, rather than emerging from academic research or policy analysis. This origin story suggests the concept may be more about media narrative than rigorous destination management science. When destinations lack basic capacity data, the label becomes meaningless at best and counterproductive at worst.

This foundational critique set the stage for a more sophisticated discussion about tourism management. Rather than accepting overtourism as an inevitable consequence of growth, the panellists explored how better planning, strategic distribution, and collaborative approaches might address the underlying issues without resorting to blunt instruments like blanket restrictions or punitive taxation.

From Challenge to Opportunity: The Airline Perspective

Peter Glade’s response to questions about overtourism’s impact on TUI’s business model revealed a refreshingly pragmatic approach. “It’s an opportunity. I really think it’s an opportunity,” he stated, immediately reframing the discussion from defensive damage control to proactive business development.

This perspective stems from TUI’s direct engagement with affected communities. Glade described how the company has initiated conversations with protesters in destinations like Barcelona and Mallorca, discovering that their concerns are more nuanced than media coverage suggests. “The people that are protesting in the streets of Mallorca, the Canaries, wherever we’ve seen that, they’re not necessarily protesting against tourism,” he explained. “They wanted different form of tourism.”

This distinction proves crucial for understanding both the problem and potential solutions. Rather than opposing tourism entirely, local communities are expressing frustration with particular types of tourism that offer limited benefits while imposing significant costs on local infrastructure and quality of life. For a vertically integrated operator like TUI, this presents clear opportunities to develop alternative tourism products that better serve both travellers and destinations.

From an airline operational perspective, Glade acknowledged the appeal of peak season demand. “It’s very easy to fill up a destination in high peak season as an airline. Fill up my planes. It’s wonderful,” he admitted. However, he positioned this short-term thinking as ultimately limiting. “Working with every stakeholder in a destination to extend the season, to make a destination attractive in the low season, that’s a super incentive for me if I’m looking at how to plan a network for an airline.”

This approach aligns airline commercial interests with destination sustainability goals. Extended seasons mean better aircraft utilisation, more stable employment for destination workers, and reduced pressure on infrastructure during peak periods. It represents exactly the kind of collaborative thinking that could address overtourism concerns while maintaining industry growth.

TUI’s environmental office, established thirty years ago and expanded a decade ago to include social sustainability issues, demonstrates how overtourism considerations have become embedded in the company’s operational DNA. This long-term perspective enables more sophisticated responses than reactive crisis management.

Strategic Development: Lessons from Saudi Arabia’s Tourism Vision

Majid Khan’s contribution to the panel offered a fascinating counterpoint to the European experience, showcasing how emerging destinations can learn from overtourism challenges elsewhere while building sustainable tourism from the ground up. Saudi Arabia’s approach demonstrates the advantages of strategic planning when developing tourism infrastructure and connectivity.

The scale of Saudi Arabia’s tourism ambitions is breathtaking. The country targets 150 million tourists by 2030, having already crossed the 100 million mark. However, the approach to achieving this growth reveals sophisticated thinking about distribution and capacity management. “When we look in Saudi Arabia, we have a 1700 kilometre of coastline. There is cultural, religious, municipal sites. We are building new destinations in the Red Sea. We have Ula,” Majid Khan explained, emphasising the country’s diverse tourism assets.

The geographic comparison Majid Khan offered puts this development in perspective: “Saudi Arabia is the size of Europe. It’s a continent in itself.” This vast scale enables a distribution strategy that established European destinations might envy. Rather than concentrating tourism in a few hotspots, Saudi Arabia can spread visitors across multiple regions, each offering distinct experiences.

The strategic segmentation approach proves particularly noteworthy. “We have actually segmented what we want, which markets we want to target, and to which places of Saudi Arabia,” Majid Khan revealed. This represents exactly the kind of capacity-conscious planning that Brown argued was missing from many established destinations. By matching specific source markets with appropriate destinations within the country, Saudi Arabia aims to avoid the concentration problems that plague many European tourism hotspots.

The connectivity strategy reflects this distributed approach. Rather than simply maximising flights to Riyadh, the programme considers how to bring visitors to regional airports while encouraging domestic travel. “When we discuss connectivity, we don’t talk about flights just to and from one destination. We really talk about how can we bring people, for instance, to our regional airports, but at the same time spread them all around the country.”

This holistic approach extends to stakeholder alignment. Majid Khan described how various government ministries, the national airline, and regional authorities all focus on the same Vision 2030 objectives. “Everybody is working on one goal, Vision 2030 in Saudi Arabia. So that’s very simple. It’s our ministry of tourism, ministry of transport, our national airline, our airports, everybody is focusing on Vision 2030.”

The inclusion of local communities in this planning process addresses one of the key concerns raised about overtourism elsewhere. Majid Khan emphasised how Saudi hospitality culture creates natural advantages for tourism development, with locals genuinely welcoming visitors and taking pride in showcasing their country. This cultural foundation, combined with strategic planning, offers a template for sustainable tourism development that other destinations might study.

The Regulation Debate: Beyond Blunt Instruments

The discussion of tourism taxes revealed the complexity of policy responses to overtourism concerns. While such measures have proliferated across European destinations, the panel’s analysis suggested their effectiveness remains questionable and their design often counterproductive.

Glade offered a nuanced critique of taxation approaches, acknowledging their intent while questioning their implementation. “Taxes drive down the attractiveness of destinations, and that’s the intention behind those, but there’s cleverer ways how to reach that,” he argued. The key concern centres on unintended consequences that might exacerbate rather than solve underlying problems.

The hotel bed tax example illustrates this complexity. “If you’re having attacks on hotel beds, does that just increase the number of people that directly rent properties because it becomes more attractive?” Glade asked. Such policies might simply shift tourism patterns rather than reducing overall pressure, potentially making housing affordability problems worse for local residents.

Brown’s observation about tourism tax effectiveness proved particularly striking. “There’s not a single example where the introduction of tourist taxes has led to a decrease in visitor numbers. In fact, in every single case it’s increased,” he noted. This counterintuitive outcome raises fundamental questions about whether such measures serve their stated purpose or simply generate revenue while creating the appearance of action.

The Venice case study offered by Glade provided concrete context for these concerns. Before the pandemic, Venice received 25 million day visitors annually, with only 5 million arriving by cruise ship. “You can regulate cruise ships because you can go to the port and say, well, you’re just accepting X amount of cruise ships per day. Far more difficult to regulate what to do with the other 20 million,” he explained. This highlights how visible tourism modes often receive disproportionate attention while less obvious but larger flows continue unchecked.

The Canary Islands approach earned praise from Glade as an example of more sophisticated regulation. Rather than relying solely on taxation, the islands have implemented comprehensive policies addressing tourism’s broader impacts. Requirements for hotel developers to provide staff housing, for instance, directly address one of the key community concerns about tourism development: its impact on local housing markets.

Majid Khan’s perspective from Saudi Arabia highlighted how aviation taxes specifically affect destination competitiveness. European aviation taxes, designed for intra-European travel, create disproportionate burdens for long-haul destinations. “If you pay nine euros to fly within Europe, you have to pay approximately 30 euros because we’re outside the EU. It definitely makes us less attractive,” he explained.

Sascha Feuerherd’s analysis emphasised the need for destination-specific approaches. “There are unique and different challenges that we face in different locations,” she noted, pointing out that island destinations face different regulatory possibilities than mainland locations accessible by multiple transport modes. This observation reinforces the need for tailored rather than generic policy responses.

Seasonality as the Solution: Extending Tourism Beyond Peak Periods

Perhaps the most compelling solutions discussed centred on seasonality management, with several panellists highlighting successful examples of destinations that have extended their appeal beyond traditional peak periods. These case studies offer practical models for addressing overtourism through better temporal distribution rather than overall reduction.

The Antalya success story provided the panel’s most striking example. Glade revealed that “in the winter season 2023-24, Antalya was the main destination for British packaged tourism, more than the Canary Islands.” This achievement becomes even more remarkable considering Turkey’s winter weather conditions. “The weather in Antalya in winter is not always beautiful. But what did they do? They came together and started to build attractive offers for people that would also work indoors.”

This transformation required collaborative effort across the entire destination ecosystem. Hotels remained open year-round, providing stable employment rather than seasonal contracts. Tour operators developed indoor and cultural attractions suitable for cooler weather. The result benefited everyone: tourists enjoyed lower prices and fewer crowds, workers gained employment security, and infrastructure operated more efficiently throughout the year.

The mountain resort evolution offers another instructive example. Feuerherd noted how Alpine destinations have successfully diversified beyond winter skiing. “Twenty years ago these were ski resorts and now you go there for taking tours with the kids, for going to the lakes, for taking mountain bike tours. They have developed and tried to flatten out this seasonality very much.”

This diversification strategy addresses both overtourism and business sustainability concerns. Ski resorts that once sat empty for eight months annually now attract summer hikers, mountain bikers, and families seeking outdoor experiences. The infrastructure investment required for winter sports finds year-round utilisation, improving economic returns while distributing visitor pressure across seasons.

Brown’s Croatian example illustrated how destinations often limit themselves through narrow marketing approaches. A destination representative complained that visitors only wanted sun and beaches, despite the area featuring “some of the most breathtaking Roman ruins” behind those beaches. “They’re not telling that story. They’re just telling the same old story,” Brown observed. “We’ve been in the tourism industry, there’s been nothing but growth for a hundred years. And that makes you lazy.”

This marketing myopia represents a missed opportunity for both destinations and visitors. Destinations that position themselves solely around peak season attractions leave money on the table while concentrating pressure during busy periods. Visitors miss opportunities for more authentic, less crowded experiences during shoulder seasons.

The airline perspective on seasonality proves crucial for understanding implementation challenges. Feuerherd acknowledged that “airlines are not keen on flying season” but noted that successful seasonality extension requires demonstrating market demand rather than simply hoping airlines will support destination aspirations.

Business Realities and Collaboration: The Airline Industry’s Constraints

The panel’s most candid moments came when discussing the fundamental business constraints that shape airline decision-making. Feuerherd’s response to whether airlines might voluntarily cut profitable routes to support destination sustainability was unequivocal: “Very altruistic move for an airline? Airlines are not tourism, but they are businesses. You would not pull out.”

This blunt assessment highlighted a crucial dynamic often overlooked in overtourism discussions. “If there’s a destination where 20 airlines are flying and I have my consciousness that it’s overcrowded by tourism, and I decide my airline is not flying to this place anymore, and we’re going to a place where we’re flying half empty and not even covering our operation costs, I would be sacked immediately,” Feuerherd explained.

This reality check serves an important purpose in grounding policy discussions. Airlines operate within competitive markets where unilateral sustainability gestures can mean commercial suicide. Expecting individual carriers to sacrifice profitability for broader sustainability goals without coordinated industry action or regulatory frameworks represents wishful thinking rather than practical policy.

However, this doesn’t mean airlines lack interest in sustainable tourism development. Glade’s description of TUI’s approach demonstrates how commercial interests can align with sustainability goals when properly structured. The company’s 250 million euro investment in sustainable tourism development through 2030 represents significant commitment, but it’s tied to business opportunities rather than pure altruism.

The data-driven nature of airline network planning creates both challenges and opportunities for destination development. Airlines make route decisions based on demonstrated demand and profitability projections, not tourism board aspirations. As Feuerherd noted, “Any airline, in their data-driven approach for the selection of network, will opt for a place where they can fill the planes with rather good yields, and they would not opt out just for the fun of it.”

This creates opportunities for destinations willing to invest in demand generation and marketing. Well-executed destination marketing can transform airline perceptions of route viability, creating the business case for new services or seasonal extensions. Saudi Arabia’s approach exemplifies this strategy, using targeted marketing and route development incentives to build airline interest in serving previously underserved destinations.

The collaboration imperative extends beyond airline-destination relationships to encompass entire tourism ecosystems. Glade emphasised the importance of bringing “everybody together on the table and really having a thorough discussion” about tourism development challenges. This includes hotels, attractions, transport operators, local governments, and community representatives.

Successful collaboration requires acknowledging different stakeholders’ legitimate interests rather than expecting altruistic behaviour. Airlines need profitable routes, destinations need economic benefits, and communities need quality of life protection. Sustainable solutions must address all these concerns simultaneously rather than asking any single stakeholder to sacrifice their interests for the greater good.

The consulting perspective offered by Feuerherd highlighted how external expertise can facilitate these complex negotiations. Strategic consultants can help identify win-win scenarios that might not be apparent to individual stakeholders focused on their immediate concerns. This neutral facilitation role becomes particularly valuable when addressing emotionally charged issues like overtourism.

Key Learnings and the Path Forward

The CAPA panel discussion revealed several crucial insights that challenge conventional approaches to overtourism while pointing toward more effective solutions. These learnings offer a roadmap for industry stakeholders seeking to balance growth with sustainability.

• Reframe the Problem: The most fundamental insight involves moving beyond the “overtourism” label toward more precise problem definition. As Brown argued, most destinations lack basic capacity studies, making it impossible to determine whether they’re experiencing genuine overcapacity or simply poor management. This diagnostic gap undermines policy responses and perpetuates ineffective solutions.

• Embrace Collaboration Over Confrontation: The panel demonstrated how adversarial relationships between airlines, destinations, and communities serve no one’s interests. TUI’s direct engagement with protesters in Barcelona and Mallorca revealed that community concerns focus on tourism quality rather than quantity. This creates opportunities for collaborative solutions that address legitimate grievances while maintaining economic benefits.

• Invest in Seasonality Solutions: The Antalya success story provides a compelling model for addressing overtourism through temporal distribution rather than overall reduction. Destinations that successfully extend their seasons beyond traditional peaks can reduce infrastructure pressure while improving economic returns. This requires coordinated investment across accommodation, attractions, transport, and marketing.

• Design Smarter Regulation: Tourism taxes and blanket restrictions often produce unintended consequences while failing to achieve their stated objectives. The Canary Islands’ comprehensive approach, addressing housing impacts and infrastructure development holistically, offers a more sophisticated model than simple taxation schemes.

• Leverage Strategic Planning: Saudi Arabia’s approach demonstrates the advantages available to destinations willing to invest in comprehensive planning and stakeholder alignment. By segmenting markets, distributing visitors geographically, and coordinating across government agencies, emerging destinations can avoid the concentration problems that plague established tourism hotspots.

• Acknowledge Business Realities: Sustainable tourism development must work within commercial constraints rather than against them. Airlines will not voluntarily sacrifice profitability for sustainability goals, but they will respond to well-designed incentives and demonstrated market opportunities. Policy frameworks must align commercial interests with sustainability objectives.

• Focus on Quality Over Quantity: The recurring theme throughout the discussion involved shifting from volume-based to value-based tourism development. This means attracting visitors who contribute more to local economies while imposing fewer costs on infrastructure and communities. Such transitions require sophisticated marketing and product development rather than simple promotional campaigns.

The panel’s insights suggest that overtourism represents a symptom of broader tourism management failures rather than an inevitable consequence of growth. Destinations that invest in capacity planning, stakeholder collaboration, and strategic development can accommodate substantial visitor numbers while maintaining community support and environmental sustainability.

The aviation industry’s role in these solutions extends beyond simply providing transport. Airlines like TUI that embrace their broader ecosystem responsibilities can become partners in sustainable destination development. This requires moving beyond transactional relationships toward collaborative partnerships that align commercial success with community wellbeing.

As the industry faces the prospect of doubling international arrivals within two decades, the approaches discussed at this CAPA panel offer hope that growth and sustainability need not be mutually exclusive. The key lies in abandoning simplistic solutions in favour of sophisticated, collaborative approaches that address the real underlying issues rather than their most visible symptoms.

The conversation in Athens demonstrated that the travel industry possesses both the knowledge and the tools necessary to address overtourism challenges. What remains is the political will and commercial commitment to implement these solutions at scale. The destinations and airlines that embrace this challenge will likely find themselves better positioned for long-term success in an increasingly sustainability-conscious market.

This article is based on the panel discussion “Overtourism: Challenge or Opportunity?” moderated by Ged Brown, CEO of Low Season Traveller and Tourism Seasonality Summit, at the CAPA Airline Leaders Summit in Athens, May 2025. The panel featured Peter Glade (CCO, TUI Airline), Majid Khan (CEO, Saudi Air Connectivity Programme), and Sascha Feuerherd (Senior Associate Partner, Aviado Partners).