Every May, the European aviation industry gathers at Routes Europe to talk about where airlines will fly next. New routes, new markets, new connections. It’s a forward-looking conversation by nature. Airports pitch their catchment areas. Tourism authorities make the case for their destinations. Airlines weigh up demand, costs, risks and competitive positioning.
This year, that conversation has fundamentally changed.
Instead of asking “where should we fly next?”, the question airports and destinations are now grappling with is far more urgent: “how do we hold on to what we already have?“
The numbers tell the story
Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict in late February, jet fuel prices across Europe have more than doubled. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) recorded a 103% month-on-month surge in March alone, and by mid-April, European jet fuel was trading above US$188 per barrel (up 106% year-on-year).
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 40% of Europe’s jet fuel imports flow, has been largely closed since the war began. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that European airports may have just six weeks of fuel reserves remaining. Italy has already begun rationing at some airports, including Bologna, Milan Linate, Venice and Treviso.
Airlines have responded with speed. Lufthansa Group has cancelled 20,000 flights between May and October, targeting unprofitable short-haul services and closing its CityLine regional subsidiary entirely. The group expects to save more than 40,000 metric tonnes of jet fuel. Specific routes have been withdrawn outright — Frankfurt to Bydgoszcz, Frankfurt to Rzeszów, Munich to Stavanger — with passengers rerouted through hub airports.
KLM has scrapped 160 intra-European services, citing rising kerosene costs and saying some flights are “no longer financially viable to operate.” SAS axed over 1,000 flights in April. Norse Atlantic pulled its London Gatwick to Los Angeles route, describing the decision as necessary to manage “fuel risk exposure.” EasyJet is forecasting a pretax loss of up to £560 million for the first half of its fiscal year. Virgin Atlantic‘s CEO has said the airline will struggle to turn a profit this year, even with fuel surcharges in place.
And Ryanair, Europe’s largest carrier by passenger numbers, has warned it may cancel flights and reduce summer capacity if the shortage continues.
Smaller carriers are feeling it too. Aurigny has cut services between the Channel Islands and London. Skybus cancelled all remaining Newquay to Gatwick flights indefinitely. Even Aer Lingus, which hedges fuel costs through parent company IAG, has trimmed around 500 flights from its summer schedule.
What this means for destinations
The pattern emerging across Europe is consistent. Airlines are pulling capacity from thinner routes first; secondary city pairs, regional connections, leisure services with lower load factors. These are exactly the routes that many destinations and regional airports have spent years developing.
For a mid-sized European airport which secured a new low-cost carrier route 18 months ago, the risk now is not abstract. It is a specific email from an airline’s network planning team saying the route is suspended until fuel economics improve. For a destination marketing organisation that built a campaign around summer connectivity, the ground is shifting under their feet.
Bank of America analysis shows that Europe’s three largest airline groups — Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and IAG — have already slashed short-haul capacity for April and May, and are also cutting transatlantic services. Some carriers have pushed planned capacity from Q2 into Q3, essentially betting on a resolution by the second half of the year. If that bet doesn’t pay off, summer could see further rounds of cancellations.
Morningstar data highlights the uneven exposure across European carriers. Ryanair is 80% hedged on fuel for 2026, giving it the largest buffer. IAG sits at 62%, Lufthansa at 77%, and EasyJet at around 70%. Wizz Air, at just 55%, is the most vulnerable and analysts note that its ultra-low-cost model, built on razor-thin margins, means every unhedged flight at current prices either generates a loss or demands a fare increase that kills demand.
The rerouting of flights around closed airspace is compounding the problem. Europe-Asia services are adding between 1.5 and 2.5 hours per sector, burning more fuel on every rotation, reducing aircraft utilisation and creating crew scheduling complications that ripple across entire networks.
A different kind of conversation at Routes Europe
Against this backdrop, the Tourism Seasonality Summit takes place alongside Routes Europe on 17–18 May at the Palacongressi in Rimini. The Summit brings together airline executives, airport commercial teams, destination marketing organisations, national tourism authorities and other senior industry figures for two days of strategy sessions and direct dialogue.
In any normal year, the Summit’s focus on seasonality (on building demand outside of peak months, and creating year-round tourism viability) is a long-term strategic conversation. Important, absolutely, but forward-looking.
This year, it could not be more immediate.
The destinations and airports that have already invested in building low-season demand are now better positioned to make the case for route retention. If an airline is deciding which routes to cut and which to protect, a route with year-round demand and strong shoulder-season load factors looks very different from one that only works for 14 weeks in summer.
And for destinations that haven’t yet made that case, the urgency has arrived overnight. The fuel crisis has compressed what was a five-year strategic conversation into a five-month operational reality.
There is also a second dimension. If summer capacity across Europe is materially reduced (and the current trajectory suggests it will be) then destinations and airports need to think seriously about how to recover lost visitor numbers. One route back is through the low season. Airlines which have cut summer flying to protect margins may well be open to conversations about autumn, winter and spring services, particularly if destinations can demonstrate demand and provide route support.
This is where the interests align. Airlines need to find profitable flying. Airports need to maintain or recover connectivity. Destinations need visitor numbers. The low season offers a path that works for all three, and the current crisis has made the economics of that argument sharper than ever.
Where the industry goes from here
The honest assessment is that nobody knows how long this will last. Rystad Energy’s chief economist has warned that if the Strait of Hormuz situation is not resolved within eight or nine weeks, history suggests it becomes a protracted conflict. European fuel hedges that looked solid at the start of the year are “front-loaded and thinning fast,” according to Morningstar analysts, meaning the pain for airlines will intensify as the year progresses, not ease.
The EU is considering waiving airport slot rules to allow airlines to reduce flying without losing their future route rights — a significant intervention that signals just how seriously Brussels is taking the threat. More than 150,000 international flights have already been cut from schedules between March and June compared to pre-crisis plans.
For the industry leaders gathering at the Tourism Seasonality Summit in Rimini next month, this isn’t a theoretical discussion. It’s the most pressing operational and commercial challenge facing European aviation right now. The Summit is the only event where airlines, airports, tourism authorities and route development professionals will come together specifically to exchange strategies on seasonality, route viability and demand building. Precisely the levers that matter most when the industry is making hard choices about where to fly.
A few delegate places remain. If your organisation is navigating the impact of the fuel crisis on your air service portfolio, or looking to build the case for year-round connectivity, this is where those conversations will happen.
The Tourism Seasonality Summit takes place 17–18 May 2026 at the Palacongressi, Rimini, co-located with Routes Europe. For further details and remaining delegate places, visit [https://www.routesonline.com/events/conference/95/summit-agenda/#mainContent]
Sources
- “Jet fuel crisis: The airlines hit hardest by the supply squeeze as summer looms” — CNBC, 22 April 2026. cnbc.com
- “Lufthansa Group cancels 20,000 flights as jet fuel prices soar” — Euronews, 22 April 2026. euronews.com
- “Lufthansa to Cut 20,000 Short-Haul Flights as Jet-Fuel Crisis Bites” — VisaHQ, 22 April 2026. visahq.com
- “Flying soon? What the jet fuel crisis means for travellers and airlines” — Euronews, 17 April 2026. euronews.com
- “A ‘systemic’ jet fuel shortage, flight cuts in Europe loom: analysts” — CNBC, 14 April 2026. cnbc.com
- “Airlines are about to run out of jet fuel because of the Iran war” — CNN Business, 20 April 2026. cnn.com
- “Full List of Airlines Canceling Flights Amid Jet Fuel Shortages” — Newsweek, 23 April 2026. newsweek.com
- “Jet fuel shortage disrupts flights in UK and Europe” — AirHelp, 16 April 2026. airhelp.com
- “Jet fuel crisis in European aviation — what it really means for the sector and passengers” — XTB Market Analysis, 23 April 2026. xtb.com
- “Here are all the UK airlines which have cancelled flights” — HotMinute, 21 April 2026. hotminute.co.uk
- “Aer Lingus cuts number of flights from summer schedule” — RTÉ News, 19 April 2026. rte.ie
- “Jet fuel crisis deepens as Europe faces shortages; airlines cut flights worldwide” — PAX News, 23 April 2026. paxnews.com
Ged Brown is the Founder of Low Season Traveller and the Tourism Seasonality Summit, and host of the Balancing Tourism Podcast. The Tourism Seasonality Summit is co-produced with Routes/Informa.
